Yesterday I was arguing that, if the presidential party defined itself overtly as a right, conservative, people's party, it would stand all chances to win elections. When the PNL (National Liberal Party) gets exhausted of such much governing, the electorate will have to choose either the left, that is the PSD (Social-Democrat Party), or the right to be represented by the PDL (Democrat Liberal Party) in the future.
Still the presidential party's chance is up to Traian Basescu to a great extent, since the party makes it no secret that it is a presidential group. In the first stage Traian Basescu will be an engine. Only after the parliamentary elections and the making of a new government in 2008 or 2009 can the party too turn into an engine for the head of state. The idea is that the PDL will be scoring points as long as Traian Basescu has got more than 30% in polls and the party will be losing points when Traian Basescu's credibility gets less than 30%. But it would be too simple for a group's political fate to depend on Traian Basescu only. In fact, no matter how strange it may seem, some of the cards are in Mircea Geoana's hand.
Under which circumstances will the electorate refuse the right center orientation of the PNL and go for the right? The main idea would be that people should be convinced that the party established these days is a right one indeed, but not a caricature of the EPP. The making of such a status means, after all, gift and political constancy and the leaders of both the PD and the PLD are resourceful. Still why would the electorate dismiss the socialist left and be hopeful about the right? If the electorate does this, the reason for it is to be found in the PSD policy, represented by the party president Mircea Geoana. If we take a shallow look at the future, we can say that the PSD will be a winner only if the party assumes the psychology of the winner in future elections. It means the PSD must be constant and act like a party in the opposition: censor every form of local and central power, fight on all sides and do no flirting with some group in power. Moreover, if the PSD wants to win, the party must in no way flirt with the other parties in opposition. Since the true adversary looming ahead is the presidential party, the PSD should fire the PDL and President Traian Basescu. As for this, any compromise may be fatal to the socialists and make them the great losers in future elections.
Has the PSD truly understood the tough lesson taught by the Euro-elections, when the electorate sanctioned the party for Mircea Geoana's hesitations and voted for the PD instead? If it has, the Social-Democrats stand a chance to catch up and even Mircea Geoana stands a chance to be a political survivor. If it hasn't, Mircea Geoana and the PSD will give power to the right.
Articol disponibil la adresa http://www.ziua.net/display.php?id=230340&data=2007-12-06