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2006-04-18 23:30:14

Mai bine se intalneau la Bucuresti. Asa intra si Bucurestiul in istoria universala, si nu mai incurcau Budapesta cu Bucu

Mai bine se intalneau la Bucuresti. Asa intra si Bucurestiul in istoria universala, si nu mai incurcau Budapesta cu Bucurestiul, ca doar in manuale se va scrie: La intalnirea... celor 5 s-a aranjat reducerea populatiei globului prin pornirea unui razboi mondial.

motanul incaltat
2006-04-19 01:37:17

Nu-i e bine vacii mele.....

Cre ca la Maskva s-a pus pielea cuiva pe batz.
Pe 28 Aprilie va fi raportul lui Al-Baradei. Asta va fi ca un ultimatum.
Daca ne uitam in istoria recenta, dupa o asemenea
"mustrare scrisa cu avertisment" ar mai fi cam o saptamina.....

PS. Serios vorbind, nu e de ris, e de plans !

2006-04-19 04:52:28

Re: Mai bine se intalneau la Bucuresti. Asa intra si Bucurestiul in istoria universala, si nu mai incurcau Budapesta cu Bucu

2006-04-19 05:00:46

Eu zic ca in aceasta perioada

calif la gilistic
2006-04-19 05:56:29

Re: Nu-i e bine vacii mele.....

2006-04-19 11:20:20

Cu ushile inchise da, dar voi ati uitat de...geamuri !

hi hi hi hi hi !

2006-04-19 12:15:49

Va dezarmati...o luati pe cocoasha, va inarmati tot o luati pe cocoasha !

bun este oil ghiurghiuliu , Hop si aoleu
Hai noroc si sa tropaie magarii !

2006-04-19 14:47:30

Eu nu inteleg: De ce se spune "Intre patru ochi" si nu se spune "Intre patru urechi" ?

2006-04-19 14:48:47

Re: Va dezarmati...o luati pe cocoasha, va inarmati tot o luati pe cocoasha !

2006-04-19 18:00:08

Re: Nu-i e bine vacii mele.....

Si ce-o sa zica Baradei? Ca Iranul imbogateste uraniul la min 95% cu 50 de centrifuge? Rad si curcile (ma rog, alea care au o idee despre nuclear).
Mai degraba, cred ca Baradei o s-o tina langa-danga, nici in caruta, nici in teleguta, deh, nici cu americanii nu se poate pune rau ca maine zboara de la conducerea IAEA, nici adevarul stiintific nu-l poate eluda-se presupune ca-i reprezentantul a ceea ce are mai bun omenirea in domeniul nuclear.

La 2006-04-19 01:37:17, motanul incaltat a scris:

> Cre ca la Maskva s-a pus pielea cuiva pe batz.
> Pe 28 Aprilie va fi raportul lui Al-Baradei. Asta va fi ca un
> ultimatum.
> Daca ne uitam in istoria recenta, dupa o asemenea
> "mustrare scrisa cu avertisment" ar mai fi cam o
> saptamina.....
> Motanul
> PS. Serios vorbind, nu e de ris, e de plans !

2006-04-19 18:20:30

Re: Eu zic ca in aceasta perioada

Mos Grigore
2006-04-19 20:31:10

Just Business, Nothing Personal........................

It's Business

April 19, 2006: Responding to American requests, shipments of modern air-defense systems to Iran have been delayed until later this year. Iran is paying about $100 million for each of the seven batteries of Tor-M1 (SA-15) missile launchers. Each battery has search radar and command center vehicles, and controls four launcher vehicles (each carrying eight missiles, and another radar.) The missiles can hit aircraft and cruise missiles up to 12 kilometers away, and cruise missiles at a distance of five kilometers. The missile launcher vehicle has a crew of thee (commander, driver and missile systems operator). The 370 pound missiles are nine feet long and 9.25 inches (235mm) in diameter. The tracking radar on the missile vehicle can track two targets at once, and can launch a missile in under eight seconds of a target being located. Missiles can be launched from the vehicle at three second intervals. The missile vehicle weighs 34 tons, has light armor (good against small arms and shell fragments) and cannot float. The system has not been used in combat yet, but the Russians say it has performed well in tests. The Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missiles would greatly improve Iran's air defenses. Russia's cover story is that the delay was caused by the need to train Iranian technicians and operators. Iran bought the Russian systems last November.

China and Russia are not eager for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. But both nations are making a lot of money selling stuff to Iran. With oil selling for $70 dollars a barrel, Iran has lots of money, and wants lots of military and industrial equipment that Russia and China can provide. Iran is well aware of this relationship, and is pressuring China and Russia to continue stopping the UN from imposing sanctions. If the UN did impose sanctions, Russia and China could expect to lose billions of dollars of sales each year. Such a problem. China and Russia apparently realize that it could be five years or more before Iran actually have working nukes. In that time, a more rational government could show up in Iran. It's a long shot, but a lot better than trying to strong arm the religious fanatics in Iran to give up their nuclear weapons research.

Mos Grigore
2006-04-19 20:44:17

It's All About Thieves and Iranians

April 16, 2006: Making democracy work is proving to be a difficult for Iraqis. Before 2003, pundits (and most Arab governments) insisted that Arabs could not handle democracy. Arabs were too fractious and could not form the coalitions, and negotiate the compromises, that make democracy work. Arabs needed a strong leader, a monarch or dictator, to rule them. This was all said with a straight face.

The pundits were not entirely wrong. When given the opportunity. Iraqis formed over a hundred political parties. That has since shrunk to a few dozen, but the friction these parties create has continued to prevent the formation of a government. Compromise, the Iraqis are finding, is hard, especially when it comes to sorting out who gets what ministry. Unlike in the West, there are fewer price tags on items in stores, leading to haggling over what an item is worth. Arabs see this as sport, but in politics it can stretch things out for a long time. In Iraq these days, that time is also measured in lives lost. One of the key decisions the government-that-doesn't-exist-yet has to make, is what to do with the Shia and Kurd militias. There are two each, and the two Shia militias, those of the Badr and Sadr organizations, both backed by Iranian factions, are the most dangerous. The Shia militias represent Shia political parties that want to run the government. Not a democratic government, but a religious dictatorship

The two Shia militias are basically religious gangs, whose crimes are now seen as more of a problem than the declining violence of the Sunni Arab terrorists. For nearly three years, these Shia religious radicals were considered an asset. While the Shia radicals in southern Iraq are protected by the 10,000 armed men of the Badr Brigade (a part of (SCIRI, or the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), a smaller, but similar organization exists in central Iraq. This is the Mahdi Army, led by Muqtada al Sadr. This group tried to fight the U.S. forces, and lost big time. The Mahdi Army only has a few thousand armed men, and they have made themselves very popular in the Shia community by fighting the Sunni Arab gangs and terrorists that went after the millions of Shia Arabs living central Iraq. There are several other small Shia paramilitary organizations in central Iraq, most of which could be described as local self-defense forces. There is one exception, and these are police battalions recruited from Shia Arab areas and usually led by Islamic conservatives. The most notable of these is the Wolf Brigade, a force of some 2,000 well trained and disciplined police. These have been used in operations in Sunni Arab areas, to find and arrest or kill terrorists.

While there are several hundred Sunni Arab officers in the new army, the force is dominated by Kurds and Shia Arabs. Iraqis are worried about who controls the army and, more to the point, whether the army will try to control the country. For all of Iraq's short (80 year) history, and for thousands of years before that, the region has been ruled by generals. Democracy is the new kid on the block, and many Iraqis are uncertain if democracy can control the generals. The elected politicians aren't sure either. But as long as the Americans are around, Iraqi generals won't be running things. So the main concern of Iraqi politicians is how best to divide up the booty. That's another ancient custom in this part of the world. Saddam wasn't the first strongman to take over, and steal as much as he could for himself and his henchmen.

Electing people is easy, getting those elected officials and legislators to run the country effectively is hard. This is complicated by the fact that the Shia Arabs and Kurds have never been allowed to participate in the running of the country. All these newly elected politicians are inexperienced at doing what they are supposed to do. From afar, what the democracies of the West do looks easy. But it isn't. Moreover, the Iraqi politicians are being influenced by family and tribal loyalties. The idea of "serving a higher power" has not fully established itself in Iraq. We take "civic duty" for granted. To Iraqis, this concept is new, and unproven. Better to trust your family, tribe, and bodyguards. This was how Saddam survived for so long. Iraqis know and remember that.

It's corruption that Iraqi politicians understand as well as their Western counterparts. Get elected, get access to public money, and steal as much as you can without getting punished. This is where the real war for Iraq's future is being fought. There will be some corruption, that is understood. No government on the planet is completely free of it. But too much, and the government does not work. The voters become unhappy, unrest grows, and you end up with another dictator. Right now, the politicians are so corrupt that they could drive the country back to a dictator in less than a decade. Many Iraqis are aware of this. The question is, will enough honest Iraqis step up, at great risk to themselves, to establish and maintain a viable (relatively honest and efficient) government? No one knows, and the politicians are still arguing over who will have what ministry so that we can start ruling, and dealing with some very pressing problems.

The government has to deal with corruption, in the long run, and the militias, in the short run. The Sunni Arab terrorists and Saddam loyalists are still fighting, but they have lost. Most Sunni Arab leaders are now more concerned about protecting their people from the Iraqi army and police. These security forces are not only dominated by Kurds and Shia Arabs, but are strong, and growing stronger. Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbors have given up any ideas of actively supporting putting the Iraqi Sunni Arabs back in power. Instead, the neighbors are hoping the Shia Arabs and Kurds running the new Iraqi government will help containing Iran. That is the major goal of the Arab nations of the region. That sometimes gets forgotten in the West. They never forget it in the Persian Gulf.

Mos Grigore
2006-04-19 20:47:31

Anti-Missile Systems Versus RPGs

April 18, 2006: U.S. armored vehicles are being forced, by the appearance in Iraq of more powerful PRG warheads, to install a high-tech defense system using radar and a blast of shotgun pellets or small rockets. There are several of these systems on the market. One of the more likely of these defensive systems, the the U.S. military may adopt, is the Israeli Trophy Active Protection System (TAPS).

In 2003, a major American advantage for American troops in Iraq was the fact that most U.S. armored vehicles were nearly invulnerable to the RPG anti-tank rocket weapon. RPGs are a Russian designed system that is found in hot spots the world over. The cheapest rockets, which can penetrate the armor of most tanks built thirty years ago, cost less than twenty dollars each. Nearly all the RPG rockets Saddam bought were these older models, since his main enemy, the Iranians, had older tanks that these RPG rockets could destroy or damage. But against the more modern armor on U.S. tanks and personnel carriers (like the M-2 and Stryker), Saddam's bargain basement RPG rockets were largely useless.

Russia pioneered the development of these anti-missile systems. The first one, the Drozd, entered active service in 1983, mainly for defense against American anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM). These the Russians feared a great deal, as American troops had a lot of them, and the Russians knew these missiles (like TOW) worked. Russia went on to improve their anti-missile systems, but was never able to export many of them. This was largely because these systems were expensive (over $100,000 per vehicle), no one trusted Russian hi-tech that much, and new tanks, like the American M-1, were seen as a bigger threat than ATGMs.

The Israeli TAPS uses better, more reliable, and more expensive technology than the Russian Drozd (or its successors.) For about $300,000 per system, TAPS will protect a vehicle from ATGMs as well as RPGs (which are much more common in combat zones.) One of the attractions of TAPS is that you can put it on trucks that are bullet proof, but not RPG proof. And then there's the problem of more powerful RPG rockets. These cost two or three times as much as the cheap, and less powerful, rockets used in Iraq, But these later models can penetrate the protection carried on M-2 Bradleys and Strykers. While the M-1 tank is still immune, the new RPG warheads have a better chance of hitting one of the known weak spots on the tank. The Israelis plan to fit some of their tanks with TAPS. But before they do that, they would like to sell a billions dollars worth to well heeled customers like the United States.

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