Let us fancy we are in the near future. Let us take the scenario that the PNL (National Liberal Party) and the UDMR (Democrat Union of Magyars in Romania) establish a minority government and the opposition validates this new team, whereas the PD (Democrat Party) joins the opposition, which the Democrats actually want. Let us now analyze the latter party's future moves.
Once the PNL-PD Alliance broken, the battle for a distribution of electorate advantageous to both the Liberals and the Social-Democrats will start. The rightwing has got captive electorate and the two and the PC (Conservative Party) too will dispute over this category. And there is also a particular category of electors still prisoners of the PNL-PD Alliance, psychologically speaking, although the latter Alliance is now extinct. One of the two parties will have to attract this category. And there are also the so-called undetermined electors, who are also vulnerable. In 2004 they were attracted by the Alliance, but in 2008 they will probably be more willing to go for the PSD (Social-Democrat Party). Still some of them may be attracted by the political discourses of the Liberals or of the Social-Democrats.
But the strangest political aspect at the end of this electoral mandate is that the PNL, still in power, will be struggling to carry out a political programme initially conceived and promoted together with the PD. If joining the opposition, the latter party will oppose it, trying to undermine the Liberals. Stolojan's group, originating in the PNL, is also to be taken into account. The group is willing to open tough offensive against the ex colleagues and it is also about to make a true alliance with the PD.
To depict this almost absurd show wholly, we need to mention one more bizarre aspect. The PSD perceives Traian Basescu as the main enemy and the PD as a presidential party. And the PSD has got no choice, since this party doesn't want to block the electoral growth now, when it can grow more dynamic. And therefore the party has got to support the Liberals' minority government, making up for the prejudices caused by the PD and the PLD.
We need to estimate whether Basescu gets dismissed or not if we want to foretell the future path of the wise Democrat Party. I admit such prognosis is hard to do. If the President stays, things will get complicated for the PD. On the other hand the party will have to take pains in attracting that category of electorate I have just mentioned and on the other hand the party will ceaselessly be under the President's control and the Democrats will start counting his mistakes, including the fall of his popularity, which is very predictable. The PD won't be able to play the part of a party in the opposition 100%, since the Democrats will have to support the presidential power, involving higher and higher costs.
If Basescu is sacked, the PD will have two options left: either to welcome him back and make him an absolute leader or to slam the door in his face. If Basescu returns to the PD, any collaboration with the PSD or any other party in the opposition will be impossible, at least until the 2008 elections. But if he leaves the PD, then the PD and the PSD may manage to reach harmony step by step while in the opposition. There may be achieved such harmony that the only obstacle against a future alliance may be the PD self-definition as a people's party, which was Basescu's idea too. Still the PD's status as a people's party may not be an obstacle impossible to overcome. After all, what can prevent the PD from making the opposite move and turning into a Socialist group again?