Even if the Euro-elections lack direct effects on the great political confrontations to emerge once with the local and parliamentary elections, they still give some important clues, first of all of psychological nature. As seen, Romania's population obeys the "give it all to the winner" principle. It means a party winning a competition, no matter the type of competition, has got a call for scoring extra points later. This is why, although they had barely won elections, Traian Basescu and the "Truth and Justice" Alliance became beneficiaries of huge figures in terms of credibility right after taking over. The credibility points they got were significantly greater than those obtained in elections.
This may work for the Euro-elections too. We can expect promotion of the winners and significant regress of those who get a poor score. As for the effects, they will be felt next spring, once the local elections take place. This is why both the political parties and leaders who have approached the Euro-election carefully will be at advantage. But who will be the winners and the loser this Sunday? Here is the estimation I promised to make.
President Traian Basescu is the one who loses most, seemingly, if the electorate invalidates the referendum he arranged. It is time for me to say that only some 30-40% of the Romanins with the right to vote will go voting next Sunday. It will be comparable to what happened in 2003, when the modifications on the Constitution were approved of by referendum. And there is more: by his refusal to promulgate the referendum law voted by the Parliament and by addressing the Constitutional Court rather late, the President pursues to get some more time and to make it impossible to implement the poll system he pretends to be struggling for in the coming elections.
But Traian Basescu doesn't care if he himself loses in the referendum, simply because there is a long time left till the presidential elections and his immediate purpose is to improve the Democrat Party's score, as the party can help him be sure to rule as a player. He has got enough time to get his stained credibility cleaned and stands all the chance to do it, in case the Democrat Party tops the list of winners for the Parliament of Europe. The gap between this party and the Social-Democrat Party will be a considerable one.
As for the remaining ones, I think they are all losers. The first loser will be the Social-Democrat Party. Although coming second, the party could have been the only competitor, since it is the only socialist party in the country, an opposition party, whereas the right is in power. There is also the fact that people want the rulers to change. And Romanian economy and its growth are running into obstacles. The Social-Democrats' failure to be the first is because of indetermination. First they drew closer to the governing Liberals, which was abnormal, then they humbly approached Traian Basescu and the Democrat Party. The Social-Democrat Party has actually acted like a political profiteer.
Gigi Bacali's party will also suffer a great defeat because of failing to capitalize the spectacular improvement of the score in the latest months. As for the Liberal-Democrat Party, this party has proved unable to become credible. Except for the "greater Romania" Party and the Democrat Union of Magyars in Romania, the other parties are no better, since they can't manage to get more than 5%.
Paradoxically, the National Liberal Party will be losing less than the case, after 3 years of power, after ceaseless conflicts and after the split plotted in Cotroceni Palace and provoked by the Stolojan-Stoica group. If their score reaches some 15%, the Liberals should be satisfied. If they get more, it will be real success, even if the party comes third. Such estimations can't even by overturned by the malefic part the Net Consulting, the soft equipment master to announce the final score, can play.