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  Nr. 3885 de miercuri, 21 martie 2007 
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The second Tariceanu government
The only positive effect of the consultations in Cotroceni Palace is that the views of the political parties who matter in the reshaping of the political power in Bucharest become more popular. The attitudes of the Liberals, the Social-Democrats, the PRM ("Greater Romania" Party) and even the PD (Democrat Party) have grown sharper. The latter party has come back to the claim for early elections. The UDMR (Democrat Union of Magyars in Romania) is in a particular boat, as this party is willing to enter any combination able to make the law on ethnic minorities pass. This is a condition for the group's political survival. As for how the crisis will be overcome, I am ready to say that by backstage tricks and public statements of parties. I am ready to argue that a new government instead of early elections is the solution. But what kind of government?
I am fully convinced that the idea of a national union government will be dismissed. As for the most important party in Romania, the PSD (Social-Democrat Party), this party thinks about taking over power, one way or the other, only as a spare solution. They will choose a new Tariceanu Cabinet, most likely an alliance between the PNL (National Liberal Party) and the UDMR. The PNL-PD Alliance has turned to ashes, a pretext for President Traian Basescu to try a last blow.
Traian Basescu is pushing the PD to desperate efforts to provoke early elections by dumping the government. But estimations show that, in such case, the Democrats' electorate would provide a minimum of 15%. It is a lot, if we can remember that a short while before the 2004 elections the PD was an obscure party including no well-known personalities, headed by Traian Basescu, who had lots of problems, of criminal nature in particular. At that time the making of the PNL-PD Alliance was a real bless for the PD. If after more than two years of power the PD gets 15% in case of early elections, this will be a wonder, given the numberless scandals shaking the Alliance in particular and the coalition around the government in general.
But just as Traian Basescu, the PD is isolated on the stage of politics. It is the only group invoking early elections honestly. This is why they won't win. The PNL is interested in continuing to rule in order to try to cut on their losses in the last 2 years, when the torpedoes from Cotroceni Palace, the Stolojan torpedo in particular, have severely harmed the party. One more argument why this party has pleaded for the postponement of elections for MEPs in Romania. As for the PSD and the PRM, they are convinced that by fueling a weak government they will by buying some time and get ready for success in the 2008 elections. The UDMR needs a stable government to support from within in order to improve the chances to promote minorities' law. The UDMR conceives of survival in terms of this bill's victory or failure.
If this is plausible, we are to notice that there is a trap in it, possibly a surprise named Traian Basescu. In case he doesn't make use of constitutional prerogatives, he will be making use of the Constitution's ambiguity. He may be thinking about what he should do as head of state when the PNL-PD Alliance that got power after the 2004 elections ceases to exist. He may assign Tariceanu to make a new government, which is why Presidency may be avoided and the Parliament only may have to decide.
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