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  Nr. 3347 de luni, 13 iunie 2005 
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Current scenarios
Coalition against Basescu
Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories"
Romanian society seems to be undergoing new categorization. And it is the effect of criteria completely different from the ones at work in recent elections. I am starting this by saying that tacit coalition against Basescu has been made up in record time.
Traian Basescu won presidential elections at the minimum score required, after tough fight against PSD (the Social-Democrat Party) in general and against Adrian Nastase in particular. If he had failed he could have abusively been sent behind bars on the bulky Fleet case. But once he conquered Cotroceni, Basescu came at peace with the PSD tools and even with prosecutors that had investigated it. His decision is not to be the president of all Romanians, but to represent especially or even exclusively those who elected him and who would choose anyone else but PSD.
As compared to the other two heads of states, Basescu is taking sides in the open. And he wouldn't want to look like the daddy of all Romanians. But the consequence is that, except for dissident groups in PSD and their electorate, this important opposition party and the category of citizens it represents is growing more and more hostile to him. At that time PSD was in alliance with UDMR (the Democrat Union of Hungarians in Romania). At the election time PRM ("Great Romania" Party) was hoping to come to power and allowed their electorate free option. And hence market research showed that most of the latter voted for Traian Basescu in presidential elections, which brought advantage. But Basescu imposed parliamentary majority different from the one already built on PSD. And Basescu got the Magyars' party to the Alliance side. PRM left in the opposition and at present it is taking its poison, envying the coalition at rule UDMR is part in. And Basescu is founder of this coalition. So PRM is hostile to him too. One more main party, the Liberal one, is under tougher and tougher pressure from Cotroceni. And this is easy to understand. Basescu is trying to impose early elections. Liberals think this would bring them no advantage. This would also get PD (the Democrat Party) in the European Popular Party. This would only harm PNL (the National Liberal Party). PNL is perceived as the main party at rule, for PM Tariceanu is a Liberal. And PNL has thus become the target of popular dissatisfaction, of opposition attacks and of the more and more insisting scolding coming form the president, not to mention that even the Alliance partners, especially the PD zone, have started to criticize the government. These are all reasons why PNL is distancing from Traian Basescu. The most popular political character in Romania, Traian Basescu has traditionally been remarked for his relentlessness to union pressure, especially by the time he was a minister of transport. And at present he is most of the times right to encourage Tariceanu's Cabinet to speed up with the reform and to turn down solicitations from some confederations. And the latter have gradually started perceiving the head of state as an enemy, instead of a partner for dialogue. The government can't work at full capacity because Cotroceni is insistently providing Cabinet members with signs showing that they are to be rebuked and replaced. Executive power is becoming rather reserved at some of the president's activities. The Parliament also feels threatened by the Basescu's insistence on early elections, simply because deputies and senators would thus lose mandates. And hence there are even many Alliance members who are about to dislike Basescu, although they don't show it in the open. As for Justice, another state power, it is not too well either. In one way or the other, magistrates start overt opposition against political orders. And there is also the press. When he became president he promised he would see that Romania mass media should be free. Still Traian Basescu has been rather hostile to some publications, analysts and TV channels. The number of his friends journalists is getting smaller and smaller. The business world also feels threatened at the so-called offensive against corruption and financial-economical criminality. Most of the times this fight takes the form of prosecutors' gross breaking of procedures. And instead of sanctioning it, the head of state encourages it.
But a powerful pro- Basescu coalition is also getting shaped. It is atypical for a state of law, but it can be efficient. You can read about it in my editorial to come tomorrow.
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