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  Nr. 3233 de sambata, 29 ianuarie 2005 
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Current scenarios
The Alliance has got some silence before the storm
Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories"
Nastase is threatening he will break the silence in two days' time. But in the meantime he keeps on drawing personnel lists, choosing those he would like to rule local PSD (the Social - Democrat Party) organizations. This means he is taking action. It might be a warning, showing the PSD leader is starting counter offensive, taking over initiative. In his turn, Iliescu is almost certain to announce candidacy for president of PSD in two days' time also. Unless Nastase shows off his muscles now, party members secretly or openly willing to support him will be disappointed and in the end turn into a mass to be manipulated by Iliescu. It is to be seen whether things will be so or not. But anyway, till the PSD congress the scenery is rather confuse. It means that not even in two days' time shall we have clear results. As this is the end of January, Nastase might reply during the Executive Committee meeting. Not even the national conference due in April will bring clear results. Such thing can only come in April, but at the congress. Till then there will only be signs to be interpreted one way or the other. This is exactly the silence intermezzo that the Alliance has got. After PSD has reached durable ruler, no matter who he will be, the main party in the Opposition will start tough, coherent action against the rulers and make full use of all the mistakes the government has made. This is the reason why the silence intermezzo of Tariceanu's government is deceitful. This is also the reason why PNL (the National Liberal Party) and PD (the Democrat Party) should hurry up and set their internal terms clear in order to coherently explain the best pattern for fusion or for cohabitation as independent, separate parties. Still, we cannot perceive political power relations as two different things. In fact, they are intertwined. We must also take into account the moves made by presidency, referring to both the domestic conflict in PSD and the powerful displays in the Alliance. Both sides want to sack Nastase and each of them is making use of the force the other one has got.
Adrian Nastase might be the target of severe coup, attacking both his image and power: losing his position as president of the Chamber of Deputies. This is some other kind of getting unbound during the "night of the long knives". Such a night would have political order on behalf of the fight against corruption start investigation on some crimes, involving PSD leaders close to Adrian Nastase. Therefore Iliescu's group is likely to secretly collaborate with Traian Basescu and with Alliance leaders. Let's study each of the two perils menacing Nastase. Technically speaking, it is both predictable and possible that Nastase should be driven away from his chair in the Chamber of Deputies. Morally speaking, things are more complicated. How can the president of the Chamber of Deputies be replaced after one month and a half of a mandate? How can he be replaced, since he has committed no major mistake? Such measure would look like obvious abuse in the eye of public national and foreign opinion. It would look like abuse committed out of political reasons. This is why Nastase's image should be attacked first of all. Hence the tendency to get him directly or indirectly involved in high corruption business. This is the point where Iliescu's interests meet the rulers'. But let's not forget that Iliescu is sure to win presidency position over PSD, with no risk of party split. He can eventually keep Vacaroiu president of the Senate and who knows, he can even get some more advantages.
But the Alliance must hurry too. If it tries to drive Nastase away from his ruling position in the Parliament, the Alliance must make sure it is going to get the necessary votes. Otherwise, it will go through tough political coup. PD MPs are determined. But not all PNL MPs are as determined. UDMR (the Democrat Union of Hungarians in Romania) and PUR (the Romanian Humanist Party) do not hide possibility to uprise. In case they vote what they did not vote for in December, they risk getting compromised for good, both morally and politically. In case they start work, the initiators of Nastase's leave can only rely on PSD deputies under Iliescu's control. What a complicated scenario! If Nastase gets sacked and Iliescu gets to be top figure in the Opposition, the Alliance would get a stronger adversary. This adversary would be more powerful than it would have got, if future PSD had been left with two power centers.
The Alliance must also hurry to set domestic matters right. The way PNL will take is not very clear: heading towards a people's party or back to social liberalism? For the time being, the idea of fusion is certitude for neither PNL nor PD. And split can only weaken power.
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